Assignment Title: Lost at Sea: Survival Decision Analysis

Scenario: You are a passenger on a small cruise ship that has been caught in a sudden storm. You find yourself shipwrecked on a deserted island with limited supplies. While search and rescue is possible, its timing remains highly uncertain. You need to analyze your situation and decide on the best course of action to maximize your chances of survival.

Assignment Task:

Write a short report (approximately 1,000 words) to inform your fellow survivors. Your report should include:

• Problem Assessment:
  • Identify the key risks associated with remaining on the island indefinitely (starvation, lack of clean water, exposure, predator threats, etc.). Research potential dangers common in survival situations.
  • Estimate your survival timeline based on your available supplies and potential resources the island might offer (edible plants, fresh water sources). You can make some assumptions based on your research but explain those assumptions clearly.
• Decision Options:
  • Outline at least three potential courses of action (e.g., stay put and build a shelter, explore the island for better resources, attempt to construct a raft).
  • For each option, conduct a basic risk/reward analysis. List the main potential benefits of each strategy and the risks or uncertainties involved.
• Decision Making Under Uncertainty:
  • Explain the difference between decision-making under risk (where probabilities can be assigned) and under uncertainty.
  • Given the lack of precise probabilities, discuss decision-making rules like minimax, maximax, or equal probability (as discussed in the original discussion question) that could be helpful in this scenario. Explain the advantages and drawbacks of each in a survival situation.
• Group Dynamics:
  • Decision-making in a group of survivors can be challenging. Briefly discuss potential group dynamics issues that could arise (conflicts, differing risk tolerances) and how to maintain collaboration under pressure.

Additional Prompts

• Include a works cited section in an appropriate format (MLA, APA, etc.) to list your research sources.
• Consider incorporating images or illustrations of basic survival strategies, if relevant to your report.

Objectives:

This assignment aims to develop the following skills:

• Conducting basic risk analysis for survival scenarios.
• Understanding different decision-making rules under uncertainty.
• Considering the importance of group dynamics and collaboration in high-stress situations.
• Apply decision-making concepts under pressure.