15 Feb Assume that the data in columns A and B report the number of residential home starts, by month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon. Months Housing starts (000)
Assume that the data in columns A and B report the number of residential home starts, by month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon.
Months Housing starts (000)
Jan-2015 29
Feb-2015 32
Mar-2015 41
Apr-2015 44
May-2015 49
Jun-2015 47
Jul-2015 46
Aug-2015 47
Sep-2015 43
Oct-2015 45
Nov-2015 34
Dec-2015 31
Jan-2016 35
Feb-2016 43
Mar-2016 46
Apr-2016 46
May-2016 43
Jun-2016 41
Jul-2016 44
Aug-2016 47
Sep-2016 41
Oct-2016 40
Nov-2016 32
Dec-2016 32
Jan-2017 34
Feb-2017 40
Mar-2017 43
Apr-2017 42
May-2017 43
Jun-2017 44
Jul-2017 39
Aug-2017 40
Sep-2017 33
Oct-2017 32
Nov-2017 31
Dec-2017 28
Jan-2018 34
Feb-2018 29
Mar-2018 36
Apr-2018 42
May-2018 43
Jun-2018 44
Jul-2018 44
Aug-2018 48
Sep-2018 45
Oct-2018 44
Nov-2018 40
Dec-2018 37
Jan-2019 45
Feb-2019 49
Mar-2019 62
Apr-2019 62
May-2019 58
Jun-2019 59
Jul-2019 64
Aug-2019 62
Sep-2019 50
Oct-2019 52
Nov-2019 50
Dec-2019 44
Jan-2020 51
Feb-2020 56
Mar-2020 60
Apr-2020 65
May-2020 64
Jun-2020 63
Jul-2020 63
Aug-2020 72
Sep-2020 61
Oct-2020 65
Nov-2020 51
Dec-2020 47
Jan-2021
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Apr-2021
May-2021
Jun-2021
Jul-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Oct-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
a) Plot the data and specify any evidence of trend and/or seasonality.
b) Use the “Tahoe salt” method with linear trend to forecast housing starts for the 12 months of 2021 (1 decimal place).
c) Overlay the forecasts on your graph with the data. It is not necessary to overlay the intermediate steps (disaggregation, linear projection) but they may be useful as you develop the model.
d) Calculate the model’s MAE (1 decimal place)
e) Calculate and plot the drift signal in a separate graph.
f) Analyze the quality of this model. What is the glaring defect? What is the main cause of this defect?
g) Suggest an approach that would give better results in terms of prediction values, MAE and drift signal. An appropriate and justified narrative argument is sufficient (so one or two sentences). No calculations are required for this section.
Our website has a team of professional writers who can help you write any of your homework. They will write your papers from scratch. We also have a team of editors just to make sure all papers are of HIGH QUALITY & PLAGIARISM FREE. To make an Order you only need to click Ask A Question and we will direct you to our Order Page at WriteDemy. Then fill Our Order Form with all your assignment instructions. Select your deadline and pay for your paper. You will get it few hours before your set deadline.
Fill in all the assignment paper details that are required in the order form with the standard information being the page count, deadline, academic level and type of paper. It is advisable to have this information at hand so that you can quickly fill in the necessary information needed in the form for the essay writer to be immediately assigned to your writing project. Make payment for the custom essay order to enable us to assign a suitable writer to your order. Payments are made through Paypal on a secured billing page. Finally, sit back and relax.