18 Oct The Emergence of Radical Groups in The Community Essay

The Emergence of Radical Groups in The Community Essay

Causal Diagram Submission Document

Instructions for Submission:

Answer the questions – Your response should follow the template format: typed, double-spaced, in 12 pt font, with 1-inch margins

? Save your document as a .pdf and upload to the assignment page

 Purpose and Description: The purpose of this exercise is to get you to understand the difference between independent and dependent variables and to learn to map the relationship between variables using a simple diagram.

Scenario You are working as an intern for a think tank with a mission to promote peace in the Middle East. For her next trip, your boss wants to better understand how hard she should lobby regional leaders to take further steps toward democratization. She has heard two opposing views on democratization. One posits that democracy promotes political stability because political participation provides citizens to voice their concerns with the government and because elections hold leaders accountable to the people. Another view is that democracy erodes political stability because it allows radical groups to compete for power. Your boss wants you to provide her with a clearer understanding of these two theories by mapping them in a causal diagram and providing a basic discussion.

Step 1 Identify the independent variable, the dependent variable and mechanisms in these two competing arguments. Be creative when thinking about the mechanisms! The difference between a good intern and one that never gets promoted is frequently how many new insights they can provide to their boss.

 First Argument (democracy provides stability in the Middle East) – Independent variable: – Dependent variable: – Mechanism(s): Competing argument (democracy destabilizes the Middle East) – Independent variable: – Dependent variable – Mechanism(s):

 Step 2 Diagram the hypothesized relationships using arrows and shapes diagram the relationships you describe above in the space below. You can do this by using the free software Vensim, inserting shapes and arrows in Microsoft Word or Power Point, or illustrate the relationships by hand.

? First Argument (democracy provides stability in the Middle East)

? Competing argument (democracy destabilizes the Middle East)

Step 3 Which argument is more convincing? In a paragraph or so, briefly state which of these two arguments you find more convincing and why. Provide some examples to bolster your argument. Type your response below. (Note: We’ll study democracy more as we move through the class. The purpose of this exercise is more to get you thinking about causal relationships than to get a “right answer,” so just provide the best answer based on what you already know.)